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Post by vikingo on Dec 5, 2022 9:02:31 GMT -5
Naturally highly intelligent Peter Zeihan's video is music to my ears, but isn't he just a tiny bit too optimistic? How many missiles and drones will the Russians have at their disposal in the following months, how many new recruits is Russia willing to throw into the war? After all, Russia has a population of 143 million, Ukraine's population is a merely maybe 30 million now, after more then 10 million have fled the country. But like they say, it isn't the seize of the man - it is the seize of the fight in the man. Will the US Republicans be able to throw a monkey-wrench into the equation and diminish the supply of arms for the Ukraine? Will Europeans tire of supporting Ukraine? Because the Ukraine isn't producing any war material at all. If Russia should agree some day to pull completely out of the Ukraine which is highly unlikely, wouldn't NATO countries have to give them something in return during the negotiations? like never letting the Ukraine become part of NATO? Or eliminating all sanctions? New trade deals with Russia? Restore back to Russia more than $300 billion of Russian assets? Peace negotiations with Russia will be interesting to watch!
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 5, 2022 10:09:29 GMT -5
I don't even see the, not entering NATO being on the table for Ukraine. This was an original promise many years back and NATO completely disregarded it. Every time they let another country on Russias doorstep join NATO, they were basically poking Russia in the eye. Ukraine now will suffer the loss of territory because they persecuted the Russian speakers in Ukraine on the Russian border, and because NATO has been poking the bear for years by moving NATO closer and closer to the Russian border.
And if you think Russia shouldn't care how close NATO is to there border, look what happened when Russia tried militarizing Cuba. And the US would overthrow the Mexican government in a second, if they thought Mexico would ever let Russia move weaponry into Mexico. I cant hold a double standard and say the US shouldn't tolerate something, but Russia is completely out of line for something the US would do in a heart beat under the same situation.
I don't even hold Ukraine as much responsible because they were just a pawn for the US and NATO. I dont see any situation where Ukraine doesn't loose territory to Russia. And the more Ukraine fights and causes loss of Russian lives, the more territory they are likely to loose. When Russia gets there called up 500k troops to Ukraine I look for a full on offensive during the winter when the ground is frozen. Because nothing will move in the spring with all the mud.
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Post by wildstubby on Dec 5, 2022 10:10:11 GMT -5
With regards to the peace talks, anything less than a return to the original boarders is nothing but capitulation by Ukraine. Ukraine realizes this and Russia won't settle for it, therefore the war will continue until public opinion in Russia causes it to cease!
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 5, 2022 13:52:23 GMT -5
Russia could disrupt oil markets if they penalize countries that abide by the $60 price cap, RBC's commodities chief says Russia could disrupt oil markets if they penalize nations that abide by the price cap, according to RBC's Helima Croft. The EU cap on Russian oil kicks into gear on Monday, with bloc setting the level at $60 a barrel. But alternative supplies are scarce, meaning a retaliation from Russia could send oil prices higher. Russia could further roil energy markets if the Kremlin chooses to penalize countries that abide by the $60 price cap on Russian crude, according to RBC's commodities chief Helima Croft. "A key factor to watch right now is, will the Russians make good on their threats to withhold supplies to any customer who pays at the cap?" Croft said in an interview with CNBC on Monday, pointing out that Russia has already cut off its gas supplies from nations that won't pay in rubles. "They have a real track record of disruption. Will it carry over to oil?" That comes as the European Union cap on Russian oil kicks into gear, with the bloc having setting a level of $60 per barrel on Friday. If Russia abides by the cap, that would allow the country to still use western services, like shipping insurance, potentially keeping Russian oil on the market and flowing to Asia. But Russian officials have threatened to retaliate against the measure by slashing supplies from any country that imposes a price cap, placing pipeline oil flows to Europe at risk, as well as supplies to any country that agrees to the G7-led price cap mechanism, Croft said. So far, the mechanism has faced a mixed response from some countries. Japan has said it would abide by the mechanism, though not on imports from Sakhalin-2, one of Russia's major oil and natural gas hubs. India, a major oil customer since the invasion of Ukraine, has said it would continue to purchase Russian oil. China, meanwhile, has begun lifting its zero-COVID policy, potentially leading it to ramp up purchases of Russian oil as demand rebounds amid the reopening of its economy. Meanwhile, alternative supplies on the market are running scarce, meaning a retaliation from Russia could squeeze supply even tighter and send oil prices skyrocketing. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil sales are expected to end this month, and OPEC+ held firm on its production cuts at a meeting on Sunday, causing Brent oil prices to surge to $88 on Monday. Industry experts have also criticized the price cap mechanism for its effectiveness, as western nations are still working out details on how to enforce it, and Russia could be left undeterred from shipping its oil anyway. The country still has access to a shadow fleet of oil tankers and could be willing to ship oil with lower-value insurance companies, or even without insurance at all, according to S&P Global analysts. www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russia-could-disrupt-oil-markets-if-they-penalize-countries-that-abide-by-the-60-price-cap-rbc-s-commodities-chief-says/ar-AA14VlCT?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=f3e511f489514ebfe641c0ddd8369869
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Post by vikingo on Dec 5, 2022 14:57:59 GMT -5
Russia's fear of NATO countries invading them is totally unfounded. NATO is a defensive organization and always will be. Russians never recovered mentally from being almost clobbered by tiny Germany, in comparison to enormous Russia with twice the population. If it had not been for the United States helping them out with the lend-lease program and bombing the crab out of Germany's ordnance factories they would have lost the war. NATO countries with 3 to 4 times superior manpower and ordnance than Russia are no more interested invading Russia than any other communist country, like North Korea, Cuba or Venezuela. Americans unlike some European countries learned a long time ago that people who are brainwashed with a communist ideology or Islamic religion are a lost cause and will never be friends of the free world. As far as the Russians who live in the Ukraine who adore Mother Russia, refuse to learn Ukrainian and abide by their customs and refuse to integrate, they have absolutely no right to make demands to the Ukrainians. Especially since the Ukraine suffered from the Russian genocide of forced starvation in the early thirties. No more so than Hispanics should make demands in the United States who refuse to learn English and try to integrate.
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Post by vikingo on Dec 5, 2022 16:29:22 GMT -5
The fear of Russia and them not willing to sell their fossil fuels to the West is unbelievable. Actually the above post parrots Putin's words that the Oil-Cap Law will destabilize international energy markets. About the G-7 oil-cap law: It only applies to the 27 European Union member states and Australia, not to Asian countries like Japan or India which is definitely in cahoots with Russia. Russia apparently owns only 6 oil tankers and EU countries, especially Greece has furnished mayor transportation for Russian oil until yesterday. Greece actually insisted on $60 a barrel or they won't vote on it, because Poland's insistence of $30 per barrel to have a real impact would seriously impact Greece's economy. It wasn't easy to come to an agreement with 27 countries where all of them speak a different language and are willing to sacrifice only so much of their economy for the Ukraine. I'm sure the Europeans worked it out how they would be affected. If their law is detrimental to the US, it can't be helped because as far as oil supply for the US goes, they are their own worst enemy, sitting on enough oil to even be able to export much of it. As far as the uninsured shadow tankers trying to bring Russian oil to Europe, I'm sure a way will be found to deal with them. The Nordstream pipelines were dealt with very effectively after all.
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 5, 2022 17:09:18 GMT -5
Russia's fear of NATO countries invading them is totally unfounded. NATO is a defensive organization and always will be. Russians never recovered mentally from being almost clobbered by tiny Germany, in comparison to enormous Russia with twice the population. If it had not been for the United States helping them out with the lend-lease program and bombing the crab out of Germany's ordnance factories they would have lost the war. NATO countries with 3 to 4 times superior manpower and ordnance than Russia are no more interested invading Russia than any other communist country, like North Korea, Cuba or Venezuela. Americans unlike some European countries learned a long time ago that people who are brainwashed with a communist ideology or Islamic religion are a lost cause and will never be friends of the free world. As far as the Russians who live in the Ukraine who adore Mother Russia, refuse to learn Ukrainian and abide by their customs and refuse to integrate, they have absolutely no right to make demands to the Ukrainians. Especially since the Ukraine suffered from the Russian genocide of forced starvation in the early thirties. No more so than Hispanics should make demands in the United States who refuse to learn English and try to integrate. "NATO countries with 3 to 4 times superior manpower and ordnance than Russia are no more interested invading Russia than any other communist country, like North Korea, Cuba or Venezuela." Those were not really bolstering your case. LOL Just as recently as the last couple years there was talk of invading Venezuela and we moved several war ships off the coast. And maybe you heard of The Bay of Pigs. And we have threatened North Korea numerous times over numerous administrations. If they didn't already have nukes we probably would have invaded them. And probably why Iran wants to get nukes so we don't invade them at some point. The US is so benevolent it would never invade another country, like Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria. Its more like what countries in the middle east haven't we made an excuse to start or fund a war with. Then there was Vietnam that spread into Cambodia and Laos. But Russia, don't worry.. We would never do that to you. LOL Plus the US uses the Russia as the boogieman for everything. That has to be unsettling to Russia. First it was Russian collusion with Trump. They pushed that farce for 6 years. The Hunter Biden Laptop was Russian propaganda. The US government spins Russia as the culprit for everything that happens, but they are supposed to be quite comfortable with the US and NATO moving arms and missiles right up to the Russian border, like I'm sure the US would do if the shoe was on the other foot. Quite honestly I don't thrust the US government any farther than I can throw them, so I don't know why Russia would.
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Post by vikingo on Dec 5, 2022 18:40:30 GMT -5
Let me try to weasel out of this one. Poor choice of words, what I should have said, NATO members have not invaded or occupied any country to gain territory, enrich themselves nor fight imaginary Nazi's. Their military involvement was mainly for a valid cause like invading rogue states with brutal dictators who committed genocide against certain ethnic or religious groups, not to brutally attack civilian populations, rape and plunder like in the Middle Ages that at present is taking place in the Ukraine. And if NATO would liberate Iran, I'd be all for it.
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Post by vikingo on Dec 5, 2022 18:54:53 GMT -5
Ukraine attacked 2 airbases 600 km inside Russia with drones.
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 5, 2022 19:31:51 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 6, 2022 5:42:38 GMT -5
Why shouldn't the Ukrainians attack an airbase that is used for attacks on their civilians, even if the Russian lie about only attacking military targets. Ukrainians have every right to defend themselves instead of being sitting ducks and accept the Russian onslaught on their civilian population. Phil Giraldi is no friend of the Jews nor Israel and hates Zelensky, accusing him of owning several homes. How many presidents in this world are dirt poor, except maybe the president of Uruguay who is driving an old VW Beetle? So if you have some money you've got to be corrupt? How many presidents in this world would have the nerve to heroically fight the powerful Russian forces? At the start of the Russian invasion nobody was helping the Ukraine, Zelensky was on his own. The entire world including Russia expected an immediate surrender. Thank God that didn't happen. Help came later when the civilized world started to admire Ukrainians how they handled the invasion of their country against a superior military. Aren't most of us a bit corrupt? Don't we pay off a Colombian official if things don't go our way or are dragging on forever? Don't we pay half of our traffic fines directly to the transit officer? If Ukrainians fight back at the Russian onslaught, does that mean NATO is involved? Why do Libertarians always side with the enemy and betray their own country?
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Post by wildstubby on Dec 6, 2022 9:52:58 GMT -5
Perhaps if Eisenhower would have listened to George S. Patton Jr. and allowed him to gather up the remainder of the German army and decimate Stalin, we might not be having this conversation right now!
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 7, 2022 16:52:14 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 7, 2022 19:48:12 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 7, 2022 20:25:38 GMT -5
Putin is trying to avert further attacks on his military installations by threatening with his nuclear arsenal and scared Libertarians believe every word of his propaganda and repeat it endlessly. Putin knows better than to use any of it. NATO's response would be merciless and Russia would lose the rest of it's credibility.
Putin knows the Kremlin is now within striking distance of the Ukrainians and is starting to get worried.
Scott Ritter should be worried, too, some crazed local patriotic Ukrainian will find a way to take him out. It's doubtful he'll get FBI protection after they discovered his sexual exploits with minors. The same goes for his friend Doug Mcgregor
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Post by vikingo on Dec 7, 2022 22:56:59 GMT -5
Perhaps if Eisenhower would have listened to George S. Patton Jr. and allowed him to gather up the remainder of the German army and decimate Stalin, we might not be having this conversation right now! Well WS, at first it sounded like a perfect idea but it was far from being a simple solution. There were two kinds of German POW's. Any man drafted in the Eastern part of Germany that includes Berlin and Prussia which were several former eastern provinces that were settled by Germans in the 11th Century but ceded by the Soviets to Poland after the war. Because they invaded Poland in WW2 and annexed an equal part of their terrain and made those 13 million Poles Soviet citizens. (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) East Prussia being one of them which was divided between Poland and Russia after WW2 and became the huge Russian military base and outpost Kaliningrad, located far from Russia between Poland and Latvia. Therefore Russia is not completely surrounded by NATO countries in Europe as they claim. Back to the POW's, those mentioned above were sent to the Russian Front during the war but those living in the western part of Germany were sent to France and North Africa (Africa Corp lead by Rommel) were they fought the British and also Americans after the invasion of Normandy. The Battle of the Bulge comes to mind and the Hürtgen Forrest where Americans suffered severe losses. So the POW's in the West were the bad guys in Eisenhower's eyes. He developed even more hatred for the German's after he was lead around several concentration camps right after their liberation, which was fully understandable. So for Eisenhower there was no love lost for Germans, in spite of his paternal German ancestry. Could he trust the Germans after they killed his men by the tens of thousands? Could he be sure the battle hardened and well trained soldiers wouldn’t turn against his men after a great number of them lost wife, kids, parents and their home during the merciless allied bombing raids? Soldiers who survived the onslaught of the Red Army in Eastern Germany, especially during the battle for Berlin were rounded up by the Russians and sent to Siberian gulags, but a substantial number made it to the West and preferred being taken prisoner by Americans and the British, convinced of humane treatment and chances of survival. Those ending up in Siberia were not so lucky, from 105.000 POW's from the Battle of Stalingrad only 6000 returned home 10 years later, many standing in front of their home in ruins, their families killed in bombing raids or their wives re-married and had moved away. They weren't allowed any contact with wife or family either. There is a German movie about a POW escaping from a Siberian gulag camp, with English subtitles, supposedly a true story.
Than there was a situation with Russia being an ally, having lost more than 80.000 soldiers during the battle of Berlin (Germany lost 50.000) and uncle Joe (Stalin) being a friend. So turning against them wouldn't have looked good for the rest of the world. It’s unfortunate because there would have been no Cold War nor an Arms race which costs us untold trillions, no North Korea, Vietnam or Red China, nor communist Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela, no FARC or ELN, no Gustavo Petro and definitely no Ukraine war.
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Post by wildstubby on Dec 8, 2022 8:53:59 GMT -5
vikingo, you are probably more in-tune with the history of that era than I am. I won't belabor the reasons because you know what I am saying. Having talked with a 'brother of a certain fraternal organization' who was with Patton when they liberated the camp at Buchenwald. As an amateur photographer, he was ordered by Gen. Patton to photograph all the atrocities committed, because as he quoted Patton as saying, "Some son of b!tch is going to come along and deny this ever happened!" Some of his photographs are on display at the National Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C. However, he did relate to me that the 'regular' German soldiers were just as horrified by what their country did. He felt it was genuine sentiment. Although there were rumors of the atrocities going about, Hitler and his henchmen, AKA "The SS and Gestapo" did their best to keep that all a secret, especially to the rest of Germany. Also remember that President Roosevelt and his staff couldn't believe that man was capable of such atrocities against man to the point of eliminating 50 million Jews, when rumors and even photos arrived in the US! Also, let's not forget that Unkle Joe's Red Army was no troop of Boy Scouts either! They moved west with nothing but revenge on their minds. Later, they didn't treat the Jews any better than the Germans. But back to the point. I think the German soldier had a real hatred for their Russian comrades to the point they would have joined with US forces knowing full well the US would let them retain their own country and freedom with little oversight. I wish my high school friend was available. He spent 28 years as a US Army Ranger and now is a 'contractor' in Nigeria. I would like to pick his head about this because studied WWII and the German army's movments and actions while in college. He was really obsessed with it and could recall facts like this without hardly thinking about it.
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 8, 2022 19:13:45 GMT -5
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 10, 2022 2:05:01 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 11, 2022 7:29:44 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 11, 2022 7:36:00 GMT -5
Interview with 'Baghdad Bob'
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Post by vikingo on Dec 11, 2022 13:45:55 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 11, 2022 18:45:23 GMT -5
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 12, 2022 17:37:31 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 13, 2022 15:51:24 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 14, 2022 6:04:04 GMT -5
US to send Patriot defense systems to the Ukraine
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Post by scumbuster on Dec 14, 2022 11:26:25 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 15, 2022 15:18:31 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 15, 2022 21:11:34 GMT -5
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Post by vikingo on Dec 16, 2022 19:42:01 GMT -5
How winter may be Ukraine's ally.
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