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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 11, 2016 17:22:57 GMT -5
MS call for oil under 20 and now that we are at 30 many more are starting to say below 20 is likely. If that happens god help South American Currency
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 12, 2016 0:08:59 GMT -5
MS call for oil under 20 and now that we are at 30 many more are starting to say below 20 is likely. If that happens god help South American Currency And a particular North American currency.
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 12, 2016 9:45:45 GMT -5
MS call for oil under 20 and now that we are at 30 many more are starting to say below 20 is likely. If that happens god help South American Currency And a particular North American currency. Yea, it wouldn't be great for Canada we will see it should bounce off of 30 for a few days before it breaks down under 30 and than the real pain begins. Going to be a ton of shut downs and layoffs probably a ton of bankruptcies. If the Saudis refuse to stop producing it could stay lower for a lot longer than people think
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 12, 2016 10:56:14 GMT -5
Today we got the first call for 10 dollar oil. Oil is holding just over 30 with a huge position at 30 for exp this week I don't see any chance we hold 30 before the close Thursday at some point we will dip under 30 to pay option players
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 12, 2016 11:16:22 GMT -5
There will indeed be major pain here. But, once the dust is settled and the world adapts to cheaper oil I see other industries doing very well. 250,000 sq ft of space was given to electric cars at this years CES. I'd like to get back into solar, but feel it still might be early days. I like the look of FSLR. Thoughts Robbie?
A friend of mine has been telling me for 3 years to buy commodity stocks such as VALE, TCK and FCX. Just yesterday he was ranting about buying more FCX. Today it is down another 10%. He's also in ERX (triple bull oil ETF). I'm glad I didn't listen to him.
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 12, 2016 11:51:15 GMT -5
My biggest problem with Solar isn't the technology it's the laws and this is an election year. If you don't have Solar friendly Law makers it's a problem. If I did buy Solar FSLR would be among the top plays As for your friends plays it's tough to catch bottom in anything at some point you just have to buy and hold he was obviously early been in that spot a million times. I did think oil would dip but never in my wildest dreams did I think we would start having people talk about 10 dollars. Now 30 to 10 is a long way and I doubt we get there but lows 20's looks almost like a sure thing at this point. Gold is back down below 1100 I think I saw 1088 today and the US markets can't bounce at all every rally is sold. I think cash is your friend here. I would only buy the best of the Best Energy stocks down below 30 but don't expect oil to rally from 20 or 25 to 100 in a year it wont happen I really think $60 Oil give or take a few dollars either way is the new 100 So the old profits and Divi's won't be back anytime soon. As always best of luck and take it slow this is going to be a very very tough year
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 12, 2016 12:28:31 GMT -5
My biggest problem with Solar isn't the technology it's the laws and this is an election year. If you don't have Solar friendly Law makers it's a problem. If I did by Solar FSLR would be among the top plays As for your friends plays it's tough to catch bottom in anything at some point you just have to buy and hold he was obviously early been in that spot a million times. I did think oil would dip but never in my wildest dreams did I think we would start having people talk about 10 dollars. Now 30 to 10 is a long way and I doubt we get there but lows 20's looks almost like a sure thing at this point. Gold is back down below 1100 I think I saw 1088 today and the US markets can't bounce at all every rally is sold. I think cash is your friend here. I would only buy the best of the Best Energy stocks down below 30 but don't expect oil to rally from 20 or 25 to 100 in a year it wont happen I really think $60 Oil give or take a few dollars either way is the new 100 So the old profits and Divi's won't be back anytime soon. As always best of luck and take it slow this is going to be a very very tough year Good points. Thanks. I tend to stay fully invested and make monthly contributions. This strategy has served me very well the last 7 years, but I'm expecting a rough year. If we see SPY go down more than 25% then I'll borrow at an interest rate of below 3% to invest. Only then will I start to look at the best/remaining(?) energy/resource/commodity companies. On a bright note I'm up almost 1% today when SPY is flat as I write this.
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 12, 2016 14:08:26 GMT -5
OIL is now below 30 dollars the first time since December 2003
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 12, 2016 15:05:04 GMT -5
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 13, 2016 14:50:06 GMT -5
At this point I don't even think how low it goes matters I think it's about how long it trades around 20 to 50. If it hangs down low for 5 or 10 years there are going to be some places in serious trouble
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Post by barrumundi on Jan 15, 2016 12:04:30 GMT -5
Oil price riddle yet to play out.
The ever-deepening slump in the oil price has made forecasters look foolish time and time again over the past year and it isshowing few signs of coming to an end. And as the ripples fromits extended slide spread, it threatens to slow global economic growth even further. Close followers of the oil price could be forgiven for feeling a little like Alice in Wonderland, who found it hard to make sense of the world after falling down the rabbit hole.
Read more: www.smh.com.au/business/oil-price-riddle-yet-to-play-out-20160114-gm6fsn.html#ixzz3xKia1j9P Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 15, 2016 14:34:27 GMT -5
Demand is down Supply is up and Iran will have sanctions listed this weekend and dump even more on the market. I don't know how much lower we go but I don't know to many who ever thought 29 was possible 3 years ago. If they keep the rigs pumping it could go to the teens. XOM is probably the only stock in the sector I would buy
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 15, 2016 17:11:29 GMT -5
Demand is down Supply is up and Iran will have sanctions listed this weekend and dump even more on the market. I don't know how much lower we go but I don't know to many who ever thought 29 was possible 3 years ago. If they keep the rigs pumping it could go to the teens. XOM is probably the only stock in the sector I would buy XOM has actually held up quite well. I was looking at it today. Look at the smaller companies and previous darlings such as BCEI. Wow.
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 15, 2016 19:51:34 GMT -5
Demand is down Supply is up and Iran will have sanctions listed this weekend and dump even more on the market. I don't know how much lower we go but I don't know to many who ever thought 29 was possible 3 years ago. If they keep the rigs pumping it could go to the teens. XOM is probably the only stock in the sector I would buy XOM has actually held up quite well. I was looking at it today. Look at the smaller companies and previous darlings such as BCEI. Wow. XOM has huge cash on the sheet and the divi is not in question The smaller companies are getting close to being bankrupt I suspect another 10 dollars down will put a bunch of players out of business
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Post by elexpatriado on Jan 16, 2016 19:19:55 GMT -5
I think soon they will be paying us to fill up at the pumps. After all, 90% of oil producers in the world are losing money at $30 a barrel, might as well losi even more money at minus $30.
Eventually, though this will play outwith an even bigger spike in the opposite direction.
I dont know when, but it will. Oil fields need investment, or they deplete, fast.And right now there is near zero investment
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Post by caliconnection on Jan 16, 2016 22:03:05 GMT -5
Hey elexpatriado, if an oilfield in the oilsands decides to stop extracting, is it an easy process to simply "stop" and then "start" again when required? I'm guessing not.
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Post by robbierobnj on Jan 16, 2016 23:24:21 GMT -5
When most people think oil they think about what price it's profitable to produce it's not really all about profit. The Saudi's could make money at 5 dollars most places the magic number or cash cost is 30 to 40 this is the number it becomes unprofitable not to pump at existing wells. What is really more important is what price do the Saudis need to keep their spending in check or the the Russians Nigerians Venezuelans etc and you will find it's much closer to 100 dollar for the Saudis and higher for most other places to support budgets. Right now existing wells in the US have a cash cost below the current price and are pumping away.
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