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Post by scumbuster on May 25, 2016 6:06:58 GMT -5
Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos is not just suffering abysmal approval ratings among the general population; Business leaders are equally negative about their head of state. According to the latest poll by Deloitte Colombia, only 23% of business leaders approve of Santos and his policies. The majority, 58.1%, disapprove of the president. The poll is held at a time Colombia is going through economic hardship caused by dropping oil prices. The low oil prices spurred a profound nosedive of the country’s peso, increased inflation and is putting unemployment figures under pressure. Of the polled business leaders, 43.5% said their economic outlook has worsened over the past year, compared to 21.2% when they were polled in October last year. Pessimism over Colombia’s investment climate is even worse; 75.6% of polled businessmen said that the country’s investment climate has worsened in the past 12 months. More than half of those who were polled said the government is not taking the adequate measures to improve the situation. The majority of business leaders also said that the labor situation has worsened, meaning they would be less likely to hire new personnel and are more likely to reduce personnel. But it’s not all bad for Santos and Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas. A little more than 65% of the business leaders said to approve the government’s plans to massively invest in infrastructure while more than 44% said to approve of how the country is profiling itself as a business destination abroad. colombiareports.com/vast-majority-colombias-business-leaders-negative-santos/
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Post by suba on May 25, 2016 7:05:15 GMT -5
65percent approve of the government plans for infrastructure. It's probably nearer 100, given that everyone in the country thinks a plan is better than no plan. The problem is that the plans are just paper excercises, nothing actually is happening apart form the drawings of metros and new motorways. When something actually moves off the drawing boards the corruption is so great that it cripples the country -see the refinery debacle hence stalemate. The oil price dive means that they are even more reluctant to do anything. Like venezuela the money disappeared when times were good.
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Post by elexpatriado on May 25, 2016 9:32:08 GMT -5
Bit of a stretch to compare it to Venezuela, dont you think?
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2016 9:59:04 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices?
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Post by suba on May 25, 2016 10:33:22 GMT -5
Bit of a stretch to compare it to Venezuela, dont you think? Which part is a stretch? Do you not believe that the politicians took the available money when times were good - are you arguing that they didn't?
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Post by suba on May 25, 2016 10:36:59 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices? You mean like every government that invested in alternatives when times were good? Or do you mean the ones that used the windfalls to improve infrastructure, education and health facilities. This is always the argument that's trotted out when oil rich countries spend their windfalls either on social programmes or by lining the pockets of the ruling classes. Alternatively you could tell me why every other country that depends or depended on oil exports is not in the same boat as Venezuela?
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2016 11:05:28 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices? You mean like every government that invested in alternatives when times were good? Or do you mean the ones that used the windfalls to improve infrastructure, education and health facilities. This is always the argument that's trotted out when oil rich countries spend their windfalls either on social programmes or by lining the pockets of the ruling classes. Alternatively you could tell me why every other country that depends or depended on oil exports is not in the same boat as Venezuela? Well, it is easy to say "they should have done this and that" after. The reasons why oil prices went down were hardly predictable. Ok, maybe one of the reasons was predictable: The US heavily investing in fracking. But the general drop of prices was not predictable, or at least no country have been able to act accordingly. But I understand your point: They took the oil money for granted and didn't look for alternative sources of income. There is probably a lack of long term vision. I would tend to agree on the lack of long term vision. As for Venezuela, it's a different story. This country is rot so deep with corruption. With proper administration of their resources, Venezuela should be at the levels of Bahrein in terms of wealth. But the cake was too big and too sweet for the scum leading Venezuela.
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Post by suba on May 25, 2016 12:03:25 GMT -5
Agreed.
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Post by ozgringo on May 25, 2016 18:27:47 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices? Quite a few. Called sovereign wealth funds. Qatar with its Qatar Investment Authority. Kuwait with its Kuwait Investment Authority. Saudi Arabia. SAMA Foreign Holdings. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Then of course we have Norway with it's Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global. Note: The above are all fuelled by oil.
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Post by elexpatriado on May 25, 2016 18:32:07 GMT -5
Bit of a stretch to compare it to Venezuela, dont you think? Which part is a stretch? Do you not believe that the politicians took the available money when times were good - are you arguing that they didn't? Okay Colombia is in a bad a spot as Venezuela now, I believe you LOL
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Post by billyb on May 25, 2016 18:42:21 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices? Quite a few. Called sovereign wealth funds. Qatar with its Qatar Investment Authority. Kuwait with its Kuwait Investment Authority. Saudi Arabia. SAMA Foreign Holdings. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Then of course we have Norway with it's Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global. Note: The above are all fuelled by oil. But to be fair, those countries all have much higher oil/gas production and reserves, and much smaller populations, and none have been fighting an insurgency for decades. It would have veen nice to set aside some oil wealth, but there wasn't that much wealth to begin with. Vennie is really the one that screwed the pooch on that one.
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Post by elexpatriado on May 25, 2016 19:16:04 GMT -5
Realistically, do you really think ANY government could have done anything really impactful to fight the drop of oil prices? Quite a few. Called sovereign wealth funds. Qatar with its Qatar Investment Authority. Kuwait with its Kuwait Investment Authority. Saudi Arabia. SAMA Foreign Holdings. Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Then of course we have Norway with it's Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global. Note: The above are all fuelled by oil. 100% apples to Oranges Norways tax rate is 65%. Also , their debt is nearly as much as their sovereign wealth Fund, They have been producing at 2 Million to 3 million Barrels a day plus for more than 20 years years plus significant gas reserves and production Their Population is only 4 million compared to Colombias almost 50 million Qatar has only 2.2 million population and has the second biggest gas reserves in the world, the North field, they are the largest LNG producer in the world and until recently , they were recieving very high prices (soon to change). In addition they have had 700,000 barrels a day of oil production for decades. Saudi Arabia has an annual Deficit of 100 Billion dollars equal to 20% of GDP and Draining away their cash reserves at an astounding rate. IMF estimates they will run out of their reserves by 2018, They have about the same population as Colombia, but have 50 times the oil reserves and have been producing between 5 million and 10 million barrels a day for decades (even during the period they had a much smaller population).Their oil is the cheapest in the world to produce at less than $10 a barrel, and they have significant gas production and reserves. UAE, Kuwait both have populations a fraction of Colombia, have much larger reserves (20 times Colombia) and have both been producing at 2. 0 Million barrels a day for decades.Both countries have easily produced low cost oil. Colombia , on the other hand, still has a very low debt and deficit compared to Saudi, Has much tinier reserves (5 billion barrels now) , 50 Million people , and the reserves have only been produced recently ,and oil self sufficiency and maximum production of 1.0 Million BOPD reached only recently, as a result of the elimination of FARC and other guerrillas in the war torn jungle in Magdalena, Llanos, (Meta) , Putamayo--dispersed throughout the country in small pockets. They have been plagued by interruption of pipelines by guerrillas for years and still are.. Required intensive investment form both Ecopetrol and foreign Nationals. A lot of the crude are heavier grades, lower value, as low as 18 API. Total life cycle production costs much higher than the GCC states.Plus they have very small gas reserves www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=coIf you want a more realistic comparison, compare Colombia to Ecuador
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Post by livinginmedellin on May 25, 2016 19:19:04 GMT -5
Okay Colombia is in a bad a spot as Venezuela now, I believe you LOL Colombia in a bad spot as Venezuela now??? That's comparing apples to oranges. IMF forecasts Venezuela's GDP will DROP 8.0% this year and inflation of 500%. IMF forecasts Colombia's GDP will INCREASE 2.5% this year and inflation in Colombia is currently less than 8%. Venezuela has a socialist government, Colombia has a democratic government. Venezuela is essentially a failed state with the government desperately trying to cling to power... See this for a comparison of the two countries: colombiaconnection.freeforums.net/thread/1346/venezuela-collapses-colombia-rises, essentially Venezuela and Colombia have swapped places.
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Post by ozgringo on May 25, 2016 19:32:36 GMT -5
Okay Colombia is in a bad a spot as Venezuela now, I believe you LOL Colombia in a bad spot as Venezuela now??? That's comparing apples to oranges. IMF forecasts Venezuela's GDP will DROP 8.0% this year and inflation of 500%. IMF forecasts Colombia's GDP will INCREASE 2.5% this year and inflation in Colombia is currently less than 8%. Venezuela has a socialist government, Colombia has a democratic government. Venezuela is essentially a failed state with the government desperately trying to cling to power... See this for a comparison of the two countries: colombiaconnection.freeforums.net/thread/1346/venezuela-collapses-colombia-rises, essentially Venezuela and Colombia have swapped places. He said ANY Government. I am not comparing Colombia to any of those Countries just like people can and do plan for a raining day so do countries. Although Colombia itself would like to compare itself to at-least one (Norway) with it trying to join the OECD.
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Post by ozgringo on May 25, 2016 19:34:30 GMT -5
Above post is for elexpatriado 100% apples to Oranges post.
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Post by makopp5 on May 25, 2016 19:40:30 GMT -5
living you have to see, where the growth of Colombia is coming from. Most part from infrastructure, which is financed with hefty increase in debt this year for Colombia, The deficit will grow around 10%. Real economy is not growing. you can see this that exports and imports are going down.
The problem is not that Colombia is now like Venezuela, the problem is that we are going there, that the public debt is growing very fast (that will not be a problem for Santos, because he will not have to pay it). Also the promises he has done to FARC are very expensive and I don't see how to finance all this.
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Post by suba on May 25, 2016 20:12:09 GMT -5
Which part is a stretch? Do you not believe that the politicians took the available money when times were good - are you arguing that they didn't? Okay Colombia is in a bad a spot as Venezuela now, I believe you LOL You have two choices, either pay a visit to the optician or get a laptop that doesn't display spurious information - unless of course you can point to where I said that.
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Post by elexpatriado on May 26, 2016 7:15:03 GMT -5
Okay Colombia is in a bad a spot as Venezuela now, I believe you LOL Colombia in a bad spot as Venezuela now??? That's comparing apples to oranges. IMF forecasts Venezuela's GDP will DROP 8.0% this year and inflation of 500%. IMF forecasts Colombia's GDP will INCREASE 2.5% this year and inflation in Colombia is currently less than 8%. Venezuela has a socialist government, Colombia has a democratic government. Venezuela is essentially a failed state with the government desperately trying to cling to power... See this for a comparison of the two countries: colombiaconnection.freeforums.net/thread/1346/venezuela-collapses-colombia-rises, essentially Venezuela and Colombia have swapped places. You do understand satire and sarcasm do nt you LV?
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Post by elexpatriado on May 26, 2016 7:17:29 GMT -5
Colombia in a bad spot as Venezuela now??? That's comparing apples to oranges. IMF forecasts Venezuela's GDP will DROP 8.0% this year and inflation of 500%. IMF forecasts Colombia's GDP will INCREASE 2.5% this year and inflation in Colombia is currently less than 8%. Venezuela has a socialist government, Colombia has a democratic government. Venezuela is essentially a failed state with the government desperately trying to cling to power... See this for a comparison of the two countries: colombiaconnection.freeforums.net/thread/1346/venezuela-collapses-colombia-rises, essentially Venezuela and Colombia have swapped places. You do understand satire and sarcasm do nt you LV? Its not as if it was Swiftsonian subtle or anything like that..
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Post by elexpatriado on May 26, 2016 7:33:44 GMT -5
The plain truth is Colombia Oil production and exporta were.wayto small and too recent to turn it into Any type of Petro State with a "Soverign Fund"
They say this crap about "diversificación" about all resource producing countries after a bust, even Canadá and Australia.
If it was so easy to "Diversify" ww would all be billionaires and the Democratic Republic of Congo would be as rich as Luxembourg.
Countries economías developing thier especializaciones based on thier comparative economic advantage (see economics 101). In reality, Any country should theoetically be Coming out richer, even during a bust, if they have resources , than if they never had them.in the first place.
I dont think anyone is to blame, but if there was someone to blame for not diversifying or putting the meagre fund in a wealth fund, it would be Uribe, not Santos, since he was in power a lot longer.
Aa far as my response to Subas Venezuela comparison, obviously sarcasm.I thought it was blatantly obvious..
Sorry for the typos.using an iPhone with Spanish spell check and I have big fingers
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Post by suba on May 26, 2016 10:27:27 GMT -5
Does anybody believe that in 5 years time when the oil reserves have gone - completely gone - that Colombia will be in a better place? If so, what do you think will take the place of the oil revenue?
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Post by gallito on May 26, 2016 12:31:27 GMT -5
Colombia's increased oil production came at a cost;as prices dropped,exploration and drilling stopped.Aside from that,however,the future is uncertain.Low oil prices will largely scare off investment.
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Post by scumbuster on May 26, 2016 16:44:50 GMT -5
They will not be depleted in 5 years. Technology is always finding new and inventive ways to get more oil out of the ground. 10 years from now they will still be pumping oil.
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Post by gallito on May 26, 2016 16:53:52 GMT -5
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Post by ozgringo on May 26, 2016 17:46:16 GMT -5
The plain truth is Colombia Oil production and exporta were.wayto small and too recent to turn it into Any type of Petro State with a "Soverign Fund" They say this crap about "diversificación" about all resource producing countries after a bust, even Canadá and Australia. If it was so easy to "Diversify" ww would all be billionaires and the Democratic Republic of Congo would be as rich as Luxembourg. Countries economías developing thier especializaciones based on thier comparative economic advantage (see economics 101). In reality, Any country should theoetically be Coming out richer, even during a bust, if they have resources , than if they never had them.in the first place. I dont think anyone is to blame, but if there was someone to blame for not diversifying or putting the meagre fund in a wealth fund, it would be Uribe, not Santos, since he was in power a lot longer. Aa far as my response to Subas Venezuela comparison, obviously sarcasm.I thought it was blatantly obvious.. Sorry for the typos.using an iPhone with Spanish spell check and I have big fingers I am no export on oil. Please correct me if I am wrong. I think Colombia has been exporting oil since the 1980s. Qatar started their sovereign wealth fund in 2005. Can't really talk about Canada. Australia on the other hand. It's economy is dominated by its service sector, comprising 68% of GDP. The mining sector represents 7% of GDP; including services to mining, the total value of the mining industry in 2009-10 was 8.4% of GDP.
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Post by billyb on May 26, 2016 18:00:07 GMT -5
They will not be depleted in 5 years. Technology is always finding new and inventive ways to get more oil out of the ground. 10 years from now they will still be pumping oil. True, the've been saying tbe same thing for the last ten years. Colombia was supposed to run out of oil about 5 years ago.Although there will certainly be a slow down in exploration, it's not like they have not been trying to replace reserves used. And, as elex could probably confirm, finding new fields is not something that happens on a consistent time table. You can keep hitting dry holes for a couple of years then get lucky and hit a monster field, and all of a sudden the math changes.
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Post by billyb on May 26, 2016 18:01:38 GMT -5
The plain truth is Colombia Oil production and exporta were.wayto small and too recent to turn it into Any type of Petro State with a "Soverign Fund" They say this crap about "diversificación" about all resource producing countries after a bust, even Canadá and Australia. If it was so easy to "Diversify" ww would all be billionaires and the Democratic Republic of Congo would be as rich as Luxembourg. Countries economías developing thier especializaciones based on thier comparative economic advantage (see economics 101). In reality, Any country should theoetically be Coming out richer, even during a bust, if they have resources , than if they never had them.in the first place. I dont think anyone is to blame, but if there was someone to blame for not diversifying or putting the meagre fund in a wealth fund, it would be Uribe, not Santos, since he was in power a lot longer. Aa far as my response to Subas Venezuela comparison, obviously sarcasm.I thought it was blatantly obvious.. Sorry for the typos.using an iPhone with Spanish spell check and I have big fingers I am no export on oil. Please correct me if I am wrong. I think Colombia has been exporting oil since the 1980s. Qatar started their sovereign wealth fund in 2005. Can't really talk about Canada. Australia on the other hand. It's economy is dominated by its service sector, comprising 68% of GDP. The mining sector represents 7% of GDP; including services to mining, the total value of the mining industry in 2009-10 was 8.4% of GDP. Yes, but numbers change when you are talking as percentage of exports.
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Post by ozgringo on May 26, 2016 19:15:44 GMT -5
I am no export on oil. Please correct me if I am wrong. I think Colombia has been exporting oil since the 1980s. Qatar started their sovereign wealth fund in 2005. Can't really talk about Canada. Australia on the other hand. It's economy is dominated by its service sector, comprising 68% of GDP. The mining sector represents 7% of GDP; including services to mining, the total value of the mining industry in 2009-10 was 8.4% of GDP. Yes, but numbers change when you are talking as percentage of exports. True. Numbers change. However there is no denying that Colombia has to diversify. If it wants to fulfil it's ambition of becoming a developed country by 2026.
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Post by jabberwocky on May 26, 2016 19:25:05 GMT -5
Colombia vs Venezuela - the Colombian banking sector still works, while the banks have had some headwinds - mostly because of a number of their clients being in the oil biz, but oil prices are coming back a bit which should help stablize things. You can't get payments out of Venezuela to pay for any imports - they are being sucked dry from within.
On a side note - was in Miami last week speaking with a client - he has a friend/associate who used to be high up in the Chavez regime, he still lives in Venezuela, once a week he flys his private plane to Miami to go shopping, not for high end clothes or things along those lines but for food, toilet paper, things you would pick up in Exito.
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Post by billyb on May 26, 2016 20:12:58 GMT -5
Yes, but numbers change when you are talking as percentage of exports. True. Numbers change. However there is no denying that Colombia has to diversify. If it wants to fulfil it's ambition of becoming a developed country by 2026. Agreed.
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