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Post by ozgringo on May 21, 2016 18:49:25 GMT -5
From www.reuters.com/article/colombia-oil-idUSL2N18I09B"May 21 Colombia said its crude oil reserves were down 13.2 percent to 2.0 billion barrels at the end of last year, as a global price fall let to a cutting back of activity. Reserves, equal to 5.5 years of output at the country's current production rate, were down from 2.3 billion in 2014, the mines and energy ministry said late on Friday." "Colombia's oil production was 1.06 million barrels per day in 2015. Gas reserves were 4.4 tera-cubic feet, equivalent to 10.3 years of reserves, the ministry added." Not looking good. 5 years oil reserves and 10 years gas reserves.
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Post by billforce on May 21, 2016 18:53:51 GMT -5
For sure a hell of a poor time to be selling off your energy reserves. Santos is desperate though, he'd sell his sister. Bad enough to selling off your reserves but at give away prices is criminal.
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Post by coolcoil on May 22, 2016 7:32:46 GMT -5
For sure a hell of a poor time to be selling off your energy reserves. Santos is desperate though, he'd sell his sister. Bad enough to selling off your reserves but at give away prices is criminal. Bill - Two questions: 1) Do you really think that Santos has unilateral power to tell the oil companies to stop selling oil because prices are "too low?" I'm gonna go out on a limb here and bet that he does not (nor any other part of the government). Oil companies would be crazy to sign a contract that would allow this, as they would constantly be at risk of their cash flow going to zero. 2) If Santos did have that power, wouldn't cutting off all oil revenue have been devastating for the economy? Yes, oil export revenue for the year was down around 50% and that has caused a lot of pain. However, revenue going to nothing would have been much worse. My view of the government's performance in this economic climate is contrary to just about everybody who posts here. Given the sudden (and largely not predicted) drop in commodity prices combined with the huge economic meltdown of Colombia's largest neighbor, I think continuing to post positive economic expansion numbers is amazingly good and bodes well for the future of the country. Can you imagine what the economy in the USA would do if Canada or Mexico were to experience the same thing as Venezuela? Sure, there are still a lot of things that can and should be better, but overall I'm pretty happy with the way things are being handled.
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Post by elexpatriado on May 22, 2016 14:39:23 GMT -5
For sure a hell of a poor time to be selling off your energy reserves. Santos is desperate though, he'd sell his sister. Bad enough to selling off your reserves but at give away prices is criminal. Bill - Two questions: 1) Do you really think that Santos has unilateral power to tell the oil companies to stop selling oil because prices are "too low?" I'm gonna go out on a limb here and bet that he does not (nor any other part of the government). Oil companies would be crazy to sign a contract that would allow this, as they would constantly be at risk of their cash flow going to zero. 2) If Santos did have that power, wouldn't cutting off all oil revenue have been devastating for the economy? Yes, oil export revenue for the year was down around 50% and that has caused a lot of pain. However, revenue going to nothing would have been much worse. My view of the government's performance in this economic climate is contrary to just about everybody who posts here. Given the sudden (and largely not predicted) drop in commodity prices combined with the huge economic meltdown of Colombia's largest neighbor, I think continuing to post positive economic expansion numbers is amazingly good and bodes well for the future of the country. Can you imagine what the economy in the USA would do if Canada or Mexico were to experience the same thing as Venezuela? Sure, there are still a lot of things that can and should be better, but overall I'm pretty happy with the way things are being handled. People make the same argument about not producing oil at low prices in every Oil producing country in the world., but they keep pumping at capacity for just the reasons you stated. Oil production is starting to decline worldwide and will continúe to do so at ever increasing rates in the next few years.But this will be a result of natural field depletion and very low CAPEX due to poor economícs because of low Oil prices, not because of Any conscience decisión by Any government (I.e. OPEC)
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Post by billyb on May 22, 2016 15:40:16 GMT -5
For sure a hell of a poor time to be selling off your energy reserves. Santos is desperate though, he'd sell his sister. Bad enough to selling off your reserves but at give away prices is criminal. Bill - Two questions: 1) Do you really think that Santos has unilateral power to tell the oil companies to stop selling oil because prices are "too low?" I'm gonna go out on a limb here and bet that he does not (nor any other part of the government). Oil companies would be crazy to sign a contract that would allow this, as they would constantly be at risk of their cash flow going to zero. 2) If Santos did have that power, wouldn't cutting off all oil revenue have been devastating for the economy? Yes, oil export revenue for the year was down around 50% and that has caused a lot of pain. However, revenue going to nothing would have been much worse. My view of the government's performance in this economic climate is contrary to just about everybody who posts here. Given the sudden (and largely not predicted) drop in commodity prices combined with the huge economic meltdown of Colombia's largest neighbor, I think continuing to post positive economic expansion numbers is amazingly good and bodes well for the future of the country. Can you imagine what the economy in the USA would do if Canada or Mexico were to experience the same thing as Venezuela? Sure, there are still a lot of things that can and should be better, but overall I'm pretty happy with the way things are being handled. Good points.
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Post by ozgringo on May 22, 2016 19:41:19 GMT -5
While Cardenas expects government revenue from oil - including overseas sales and royalties paid by companies operating in Colombia - to plunge to $218 million this year from $2.9 billion in 2015 "Government oil revenues are likely to fall to almost zero this year," said Adam Collins, strategist at London-based Capital Economics." From www.reuters.com/article/colombia-economy-idUSL1N16G0M1This year will be telling to see how Santos is as an economic manager. Hoping for Colombia's sake his LSE Economics degree serves the country well. As the above linked article states people are looking closely at the Colombian governments response to it's fiscal hole. How are they going to increase the tax base? How are they going to remove the tax burden from corporates to consumers? How are they going to deal with the nearly 10% of peso denominated debt that comes to maturity this year? A shit load of debt in June. There is also the foreign account, inflation, raising interest rates, high deficit levels in the current account......
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Post by elexpatriado on May 26, 2016 7:43:34 GMT -5
Worrying whether déficit is 3 or 4% of GDP when Saudis is 20%
Still 3.6% of GDP isnt a minute number
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