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Post by elexpatriado on Aug 24, 2019 14:00:55 GMT -5
Oil prices will be lower especially in the US. The Nebraska Supreme Court upheld the direction of the Keystone Pipeline. That will keep an uninterrupted supply at the refineries! ha ha. when and if they complete it in 3 years minimum Oil price will stay low until we after the soon coming Trump induced recession (well its about time for a recession, and it needs something to trigger it) is over and the world economy recovers again, and the US tight oil fields reach peak capacity and start their eventual production decline. for 5 years minimum,
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Post by elexpatriado on Aug 24, 2019 14:03:47 GMT -5
Wow I read Ermos response again. I think he was a little too "Candid"
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Post by saltador on Aug 24, 2019 15:19:55 GMT -5
"I think the peso has almost disconnected permanently from oil prices"
You can't be serious. I mean, really? I guess you're just trolling....nice job. Colombian oil reserves are really quite puny you know. Why has the Canadian dollar stayed up while the Colombian Peso has gone down against he US dollar when Canadian Production is 5 times the Colombian rate and reserves over 50 times? The size of their reserves in relation to other countries reserves is not really that important. (Although obviously it is one of a hundred factors that influence the value of their currency.) Oil is still 45% of the total goods and services that Colombia exports. Canada oil on the other hand, is 22% of their exports. Hell, just with that one fact, could you hypothesize that Colombia pesos would be twice as volatile as Canada when it comes to currency fluctuations with the price of oil? Currencies fluctuate constantly based on hundreds of influences. Colombia peso has been ranked 4th out all world currencies in the influence that oil has on its value, i.e., only three other currencies in the world are affected by the price of oil more than Colombia. There are approx 180 world currencies so that's a pretty strong influence oil has on the value of the peso. Is that influence changing? Could be. Maybe Colombia is ranked 8th now out of 180, who knows? But no matter what you guys tell yourselves, the price of oil matters in relation to the value of the COL peso. Will there be days that the price of oil rises, and the value of the peso falls against the dollar. Of course there will. But on those days, don't fool yourself, the peso is not "disconnected" from the price of oil. It's just being influenced on that particular day by something else. Now, to be clear, am I saying that oil is the ONLY reason the value of the peso fluctuates? No, I'm not saying that, please re-read if that's what you glean from this. A lie told enough times doesn't really become the truth.
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Post by robbierobnj on Aug 24, 2019 17:54:17 GMT -5
Cali, several times you made comments responding to post that you thought I made but they were responses from other people. I said nothing about ermo . I could careless about who lives in colombia and who doesn’t and what their opinions are of colombia or life in colombia I simply stated the Colombian economy is and more than likely will be for the remainder of most people on this forums life SHIT. As for the peso since 2000 including a period of several years where the peso dipped below 2000 the average price has been about 2365 since the end of 2008 we have remained above 2000 and slowly rose to 3400 or so. Everyone is entitled to opinions and none is oil can’t help the Colombian peso and neither can colombia there are very few measures that will help the peso short term best Hope is trump gets his way and the dollar is weakened if not see you at 4000
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Post by elexpatriado on Aug 24, 2019 18:02:15 GMT -5
Colombian oil reserves are really quite puny you know. Why has the Canadian dollar stayed up while the Colombian Peso has gone down against he US dollar when Canadian Production is 5 times the Colombian rate and reserves over 50 times? The size of their reserves in relation to other countries reserves is not really that important. (Although obviously it is one of a hundred factors that influence the value of their currency.) Oil is still 45% of the total goods and services that Colombia exports. Canada oil on the other hand, is 22% of their exports. Hell, just with that one fact, could you hypothesize that Colombia pesos would be twice as volatile as Canada when it comes to currency fluctuations with the price of oil? Currencies fluctuate constantly based on hundreds of influences. Colombia peso has been ranked 4th out all world currencies in the influence that oil has on its value, i.e., only three other currencies in the world are affected by the price of oil more than Colombia. There are approx 180 world currencies so that's a pretty strong influence oil has on the value of the peso. Is that influence changing? Could be. Maybe Colombia is ranked 8th now out of 180, who knows? But no matter what you guys tell yourselves, the price of oil matters in relation to the value of the COL peso. Will there be days that the price of oil rises, and the value of the peso falls against the dollar. Of course there will. But on those days, don't fool yourself, the peso is not "disconnected" from the price of oil. It's just being influenced on that particular day by something else. Now, to be clear, am I saying that oil is the ONLY reason the value of the peso fluctuates? No, I'm not saying that, please re-read if that's what you glean from this. A lie told enough times doesn't really become the truth. To be honest I havent investigated in as much detail as you,especialy in regards to % of foreign exchange and I admit the Colombian economy is much smaller than the Canadian economy. However, I still believeoil prices are a much smaller influence on the value of currencies of individual countries than they were say in 7 or 8 years ago.
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Post by elexpatriado on Aug 24, 2019 18:42:46 GMT -5
Well that was not me writing about investing in apartments "using her mother's, brother's, and sister's names" to access a 50% low-income subsidy and a 0% loan from the government. You donated the money, or you gave them a loan for an interest? I ask because it sounded as you were the real owner and in fact you got a profit from the sale. It is called using a testaferro in Colombia. But ok... you know it better and I don't really care. I was just giving the advice to delete that foolish stuff and stop the insanity... But no... you need to come back for more and more... Obviously you think that you did not do anything wrong. You were probably just following the advice of your ethical wife and family. That is how we all get corrupted in Colombia...Sleep with pigs and you get dirty. But don't worry, you're not alone... My wife's family, they can all go to hell for what I care. Like 95% of Colombians I know. There is no ethic in that land. If you think otherwise you're just a fool. No, my mistake was equating the apartment purchases as investments. Our family here are for the most part dirt poor. When we heard about the apartment subsidy we gave them the money interest-free to purchase them in their names so they would have a decent place to live. As I stated they lived there until 3 apts weren't necessary any more, and now only one apartment remains. we only recovered the money we paid, and, as I said, we split the remainder equally since they upgraded and maintained the properties over the years. So, since you've resorted to name calling, I will say that in addition to being self-centered, egotistical, arrogant, and over-bearing, you are also judgmental. And referring to my wife and family as "pigs" makes you a worthless low-life piece of shit. If your wife's family does "go to hell," there's a 100% certainty you will meet them again. - JAMES Sorry to bring this up again but I breached this subject with a few Colombians..and the fiscalia are very strict and paranoid about this..however using a "testaferro" is realy only relevant when people abuse the system and obtain the government subsidized payments and low interest loans and immediately "flip" the property within a very short time period. This was an endemnic problem in the past and the reason why they implemented the 7 year rule. From what I read, James did nothing wrong. He helped his inlaws out in a truly altruistic manner ( which I would be very very leary in doing as I am a bit like Ermo and distrustful of Colombians) with no intent to make a profit, and he and his family waited out the full 7 year period. As luck would have it, the housing market fluorished substantially during this period, and eventuaĺy, he and his family profited handsomely. ERMO (Robbie666) I believe you owe JAMES an apolagy. Espescially since you plagarized my PM to you and posted on here LMAOF. BTW...you never did tell me what the Colombian or Costeña equivelant dicho for " play with pigs and you get dirty" is..but I asked the woman in the peluqueria what it was and it is basically the same here in Santander " Rodeas con cerdos y tu ensucias"
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Post by caliorbust on Aug 25, 2019 5:36:54 GMT -5
This little episode should warn anybody on a public forum to refrain from revealing too much personal information as there is always some bastard in the crowd who will get his jollies ruining your day.
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Post by james on Aug 25, 2019 10:54:54 GMT -5
The size of their reserves in relation to other countries reserves is not really that important. (Although obviously it is one of a hundred factors that influence the value of their currency.) Oil is still 45% of the total goods and services that Colombia exports. Canada oil on the other hand, is 22% of their exports. Hell, just with that one fact, could you hypothesize that Colombia pesos would be twice as volatile as Canada when it comes to currency fluctuations with the price of oil? Currencies fluctuate constantly based on hundreds of influences. Colombia peso has been ranked 4th out all world currencies in the influence that oil has on its value, i.e., only three other currencies in the world are affected by the price of oil more than Colombia. There are approx 180 world currencies so that's a pretty strong influence oil has on the value of the peso. Is that influence changing? Could be. Maybe Colombia is ranked 8th now out of 180, who knows? But no matter what you guys tell yourselves, the price of oil matters in relation to the value of the COL peso. Will there be days that the price of oil rises, and the value of the peso falls against the dollar. Of course there will. But on those days, don't fool yourself, the peso is not "disconnected" from the price of oil. It's just being influenced on that particular day by something else. Now, to be clear, am I saying that oil is the ONLY reason the value of the peso fluctuates? No, I'm not saying that, please re-read if that's what you glean from this. A lie told enough times doesn't really become the truth. To be honest I haven't investigated in as much detail as you,especially in regards to % of foreign exchange and I admit the Colombian economy is much smaller than the Canadian economy. However, I still believe oil prices are a much smaller influence on the value of currencies of individual countries than they were say in 7 or 8 years ago. I agree with Saltador and Elex on this. The Colombian peso has been falling in relation to the dollar since 2014 when oil prices collapsed. With oil being almost 50% of this country's exports the economy slowed significantly. Between 2014 and 2016, the peso lost almost 60% of its value (compared to USD.) In 2016-2018, the peso was relatively stable, but since 2018 it has lost an additional 20% in value.The government has tried to prop up the economy, but they really don't have a lot to work with. Also, The Colombia/USA free trade agreement signed in 2012 has cost Colombia a LOT of import duty revenue. Under Trump's policies, the US dollar is gaining strength, so the peso continues to fall. Without the dollar's increased valuation, the COP probably would have been stable or actually increased in value since 2017 or so. Elex's statement that, " oil prices are a much smaller influence on the value of currencies of individual countries than they were say in 7 or 8 years ago," is absolutely correct. While the fall of the peso has hurt the average Colombian, it's been a boon for expats like Cali and I. We now receive over 80% more pesos per dollar that we did in 2014. Inflation here averaged less than 4%/yr over this time period so we are way ahead of the game. Plus, the loans that my wife and I took out years ago are now being paid back with cheaper pesos. For us ... a win-win. With all of the economic turmoil in the world: US/China trade dispute, Brexit, poorly regulated financial markets, etc., the prospect of the world economies coming back to an even balance is a long way off (if ever). The only thing little people like us can do is try to enjoy life and ride things out. - JAMES
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Post by barrumundi on Aug 27, 2019 8:13:20 GMT -5
With all of the economic turmoil in the world: US/China trade dispute, Brexit, poorly regulated financial markets, etc., the prospect of the world economies coming back to an even balance is a long way off (if ever). The only thing little people like us can do is try to enjoy life and ride things out. - JAMES Exactamente! There is nothing any of us can do about it! Enjoy the good times and grumble about the bad times but it doesn't matter what we say or do ....... it won't change anything.
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Post by wildstubby on Aug 27, 2019 15:44:59 GMT -5
barrumundi said: Yeah, but if you are like me, it will give you something to bịtch about. I always like to bịtch about something regardless how trivial. It must be the 'swabbie' in me! A sailor aint happy unless he's bitching about his work!
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